Grains forecast looking up as farmers eye record crop
Tuesday 8 September 2026 Primary industriesMedia release
The Australian Crop Report: September 2026 points to a bumper year for South Australian crops, as the sector continues to exceed expectations and sets the stage for their second strongest season on record.
The quarterly report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has delivered a revised winter crop production forecast of 11.3 million tonnes.
This represents a 24 per cent increase from the last ABARES forecast of 9.1 million in June, and a 15 per cent increase from the latest Department of Primary Industries and Regions (PIRSA) Crop and Pasture Report forecast of 9.8 million tonnes.
Both PIRSA and ABARES have identified 2026-27 as one of South Australia’s strongest cropping seasons in recent years, supported by above-average rainfall, excellent soil moisture reserves and rapid crop development.
Altogether, these favourable conditions have appeared to more-than-offset impacts from elevated input costs that largely emerged early in the year out of global pressures involving fuel and fertiliser supplies.
South Australia’s 2026-27 is forecast to be 28 per cent above the five-year average and is on track to exceed last season by more than 24 per cent – outperforming the rest of the country.
According to the ABARES report, the only other state on track to experience a growth in production compared to 2025-26 is Victoria, which is looking at a 12 per cent increase, while production is expected to decrease by 16 per cent in WA, 30 per cent in NSW, and 43.6 per cent in Queensland.
Optimum rainfall, soil moisture levels and mild winter temperatures across South Australia have resulted in crops advancing up to four weeks ahead of where they would normally be in the season. While dry and hot conditions are expected in the coming months, most crops are in a good position to be more resilient to heat stress thanks to their exceptional condition and advanced development.
PIRSA will deliver its next Crop and Pasture Report later this month.