Phenomenal crop forecast continues to grow

Grain production in South Australia is continuing to exceed expectations from earlier in the year, with a new Crop and Pasture Report delivering the strongest forecast yet for the season.

The latest bimonthly report by the Department of Primary Industries and Regions (PIRSA) has delivered a revised 2026-27 season forecast of 11.6 million tonnes, an increase of 2.6 per cent over the forecast 11.3 million tonnes delivered by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resources Economics and Sciences (ABARES) earlier this month.

This result reflects a season that is shaping up to be one of the best our state’s field crop farmers have ever experienced, with PIRSA’s latest forecast result trending 32 per cent above the five-year average and 18 per cent higher than its July Crop and Pasture Report.

Forecasts by both PIRSA and ABARES have consistently increased since the start of the season, reflecting the favourable conditions and a growth in confidence that is matched only by the growth our farmers are seeing in their fields across much of our state.

Strong crop growth this season has been supported by above-average rainfall and significantly improved soil moisture levels across most parts of the state.

South Australia experienced its fourth wettest August on record, which further supported development of crops and enabled them to become more established than normal thanks to excellent soil moisture reserves and favourable growing conditions.

The strong rainfall has also supported outstanding pasture and livestock conditions across most regions, providing abundant feed availability, secure water supplies and widespread spring feed surpluses – reducing the need for supplementary feeding as producers anticipate relying primarily on grazing throughout spring.

The livestock sector is also experiencing increased confidence as prices strengthen for lamb, mutton, beef and wool, although high livestock prices are also increasing the cost of replacing breeding stock, potentially limiting the scale of restocking for some producers.

The wet winter has increased disease pressure in some crops, but proactive monitoring and preventative fungicide programs have helped keep disease levels in-check.

In response to concerns raised about the threat of locusts, the Malinauskas Government has commenced surveillance and risk assessment activities as part of its $6.5 million boost to locust response activities in South Australia.

While widespread impacts from locusts have not yet been observed, producers are encouraged to plan and implement controls where necessary, with a Chemical Rebate Scheme available to eligible farmers to cover the costs of chemicals used to control the pest.

Growers remain alert to the hotter and drier conditions expected with the establishment of El Niño, which is expected to strengthen further and potentially peak in late spring or summer.

Reduced rainfall is expected with El Niño in South Australia, and the seasonal outlook indicates an increased likelihood of below-average rainfall across parts of southern Australia during spring, along with above-average maximum temperatures.

The Crop and Pasture Report outlines key intelligence about regional grain and pasture performance across 14 districts in South Australia.

The report includes a statewide summary of crop conditions, paddock activities, seasonal weather impacts, livestock condition, pasture performance and feed availability.

To read the full 2026–27 Crop and Pasture Report, visit crop report.